Frank Thelen analysiert, was der Bitcoin-Erfinder nicht ...

Weekly Wrap: This Week In Chainlink September 28 - October 4

Weekly Wrap: This Week In Chainlink September 28 - October 4

Chainlink Hackathon - Congratulations to the Winners of the Chainlink Virtual Hackathon 2020

Thanks to all #Chainlink Hackathon participants and congrats to the winners! Devs showcased a wide range of new Chainlink functions:
- P2P car rental platform using a @Tesla API
- Yield farming RPG game
- AMM insurance market
- decentralized library & more

Announcements and Integrations 🎉

WBTC's $1 billion+ in Bitcoin will now gain additional security using Chainlink's Proof of Reserve capability. We're thrilled to be working with @BitGo to enable greater transparency & therefore more usability for WBTC as a form of collateral across DeFi.

Crypto-fiat payment provider @AlchemyPay is integrating Chainlink price feeds into its payments & upcoming DeFi platform. This ensures that users receive the fair market when interacting with DeFi dApps or making retail crypto payments on Alchemy Pay.

Gaming platform Planetarium is integrating Chainlink into @NineChronicles to power cross-game Metaverse communication, in-game commodity pricing, and secure trading of in-game items, with additional plans to use Chainlink VRF to create unique NFT-backed in-game items.

DeFi platform @strongblock_io has integrated Chainlink’s ETH/USD & LINK/ETH Price Reference Data feeds live on mainnet to calculate its staking rewards. This ensures that all rewards issued to StrongBlock users are accurately & transparently distributed.

Blockchain platform @blockstack is integrating Chainlink as its go-to oracle solution to empower universally connected smart contracts. Blockstack devs will have access to any API, Sybil resistant nodes, live decentralized price oracles for DeFi and more.

Private synthetic asset DeFi platform @OffshiftXFT has integrated Chainlink's BTC/USD and XAU/USD Price Feeds live on Testnet to serve as decentralized reference prices for users minting, burning, and trading its privacy-preserving zkAssets.

DeFi platform @OfficialCentaur integrates Chainlink VRF to add enhanced transparency. Chainlink VRF's provably fair source of RNG enables unbiased random selection of sale participants, leveling the playing field for all.

New Chainlink Node operator Inotel is now live on mainnet helping secure Chainlink's Price Reference Data for DeFi developers. Inotel brings DevOps experience as a PoS validatonode operator on 9 other Web3 networks, helping secure millions in USD value.

Featured Videos & Educational Pieces 🎥

Chainlink's oracle network unlocks new markets for insurance + expands DeFi’s footprint. @avivahl from @Gartner_Inc highlights how organizations like @ArbolMarket use Chainlink rainfall data to give farmers access to parametric weather insurance contracts.

Data providers use Chainlink to sell data/APIs to multiple blockchains in under an hour, from existing APIs & without running any additional software. Many have then launched Chainlink Nodes in a few hours, to sell signed data directly to smart contracts.

Rewatch our live Q&A with TrustSwap CEO, Jeff Kirdeikis. We will be speaking about TrustSwap's recent integration of Chainlink and its use of decentralized oracles to grow the DeFi ecosystem.

Rewatch our a live Q&A with the Aavegotchi team. We speak about Aavegotchi's recent integration of Chainlink VRF and its use of decentralized oracles to grow the NFT ecosystem. Come learn more about NFTs / crypto-collectibles, Aavegotchi and more.

SmartCon Videos are now ALL available. Watch them here


Upcoming Events 📅

Are you interested in hosting your own meetup? Apply to become a Chainlink Community Advocate today: https://events.chain.link/advocate

Chainlink Labs is hiring to build Chainlink’s network: Check out these open roles 👩‍💼

View all open roles at https://careers.smartcontract.com
Are there other community content and celebrations that we missed? Post them in the comments below! ⤵️
submitted by linkedkeenan to Chainlink [link] [comments]

Welcome to the Official Energi Cryptocurrency Reddit!

Welcome to the Official Energi Cryptocurrency Reddit!

https://preview.redd.it/mymfi39kf2c51.png?width=200&format=png&auto=webp&s=71c90d32c9bf87dbd393e85bbeedb753e202a5b0
Below you will find a Table of Contents that will cover all the fundamentals of the cryptocurrency.

Table of Contents

  1. What is Energi?
  2. What are the Fundamentals of Energi?
    1. Scalability
    2. Funding
    3. Governance
    4. Inflation
    5. Distribution
    6. Decentralization
    7. Long Term Vision
  3. Coin Specs
  4. How to Get Started
    1. Official Energi Website
    2. Social Media
    3. Exchanges
    4. Energi Block Explorers
    5. Wallet Downloads
    6. Proof-of-Stake Setup Guides
    7. Masternode Setup Guide
  5. FAQ

1. What is Energi

Energi is a self-funding (no ICO and no premine) cryptocurrency that has a purpose to become the world’s leading cryptocurrency with the unification of Smart Contracts, Governance and Self-funding Treasury to ensure longevity and enable rapid growth. You can read more about why we decided to self-fund and chose not to conduct an ICO here.
Energi provides a small allocation to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) rewards, takes a bulk of the coin issuance and gives it to its treasury and active Masternodes. Energi also allocates 10% on-going reward to the leadership of the Energi Backbone, which is significantly less compared to today’s ICOs’ rewarding their founders between 20–50% of the tokens distributed. Another trait that sets Energi apart from ICOs is they give an on-going 10% allocation through each block reward, rather than rewarding the founders up-front.

2. What are the Fundamentals of Energi?

  • Scalability
1 minute block times and a 2 megabyte block size limit provide Energi with a vast transaction capacity for regular on-chain transactions. This allows for plenty of space on the blockchain for extremely fast transactions with very low fees.
Energi features a powerful on-chain scaling solution with a system of incentivized full nodes called Energi Masternodes. A Masternode is a full node backed by 1,000 NRG collateral that provides level 2 scalability to the Energi Cryptocurrency. 40% of the emissions of Energi is allocated to Masternodes, providing an extremely strong incentive to grow the number of full nodes and scalability of the network.

  • Funding
A key feature of Energi is its powerful treasury system. Energi makes up to 40% of the emissions available to the treasury, to be utilized in a manner that provides maximum benefit.
Treasury allocation is decentralized, allowing for submitted proposals from anyone, to be voted on by Masternodes and paid out from the emissions.
Energi has a 14 day treasury cycle, allowing quick payments for proposal authors and contributors, as well as strategic responsiveness to effective proposals. Energi is guided by the principle that every dollar spent from its funding model should yield more than one dollar of value in return. Thanks to a 14 day treasury cycle, the Energi team is able to measure results and respond quickly to changes in strategy.

  • Governance
The Energi Treasury is a decentralized governance model designed with Masternodes as caretakers, with voting rights on how to best utilize treasury funding.
This governance model reduces risk by allowing participation from everyone who holds 1,000 NRG as a Masternode. In this way, the Energi community can work together on how to best build the strategic direction of Energi.

  • Inflation
Energi Cryptocurrency has a simple rate of inflation at 1 million coins per month with no maximum cap. This ensures consistency in funding allocation, Masternode rewards, and PoS rewards, making the economics of the cryptocurrency more understandable for everyone who chooses to participate in Energi.
No coin supply limit ensures that Energi is prepared for the long term, avoiding “bubble” economics caused by dramatic early inflation that in most coins only serves to benefit founders ahead of increased adoption.

  • Distribution
Energi conducted a fair launch on April 14, 2018 with no ICO and no premine. Prior to launch, the Energi team gave a specific time and date for the launch of its main net, which its vibrant community eagerly awaited, so that mining could begin fairly, again avoiding centralization among the coin founders (It's important to note that Energi has transitioned from Proof-of-Work consensus to a Proof-of-Stake consensus).
Energi Masternode payments were designed to begin at block 216000, which occurred on September 18, 2018, almost 160 days after launch. This ensured time to list Energi on exchanges, and to grow the community, encouraging fair and equitable distribution before the extremely powerful Masternode rewards began. It is all too common for Masternode coins to feature a premine, which has the effect of centralizing distribution among the founders and early adopters.
From 2018 to 2020, Energi distributed nearly 4 million coins to users who contributed to spreading awareness of the project with social media activities about Energi, such as tweets, follows, and subscriptions on all major social media platforms.

  • Decentralization
Decentralized governance with Masternodes helps to ensure everyone is able to participate in Energi and help guide the project to achieve the best results. The change to the requirement to run a Masternode, from 10 000 NRG to 1 000 NRG, has allowed more people to be involved and boosted decentralization for the whole project.

  • Long Term Vision
All of the above features seamlessly work together in concert, to ensure that Energi is prepared for the long term. Rather than try to closely find a niche in the market, Energi is prepared to adapt and overcome all challenges for many years to come. Energi’s use case is that of a traditional cryptocurrency, such as Bitcoin. However, Energi’s strategy is to excel by avoiding the pitfalls of previous projects, while further utilizing and improving upon the most powerful ideas in the cryptocurrency space.

3. Coin Specs

Ticker: NRG
Block time: 1 minute.
Hashing Algorithm: Dagger-Hashimoto (similar to Ethereum).
Masternode requirements: 1,000 Energi.
Treasury cycle: Every 14 days.
Approximately 1 million Energi will be released per month. The allocations can be observed easily as “10/10/40/40.”
10% will go to the Energi Backbone.
10% to the PoS participants
40% to Masternodes.
40% to the Treasury.
Thus, for every block, allocations are: 2.28 Energi to the Backbone, 2.28 Energi to the PoS participants, 9.14 Energi to the Treasury, and 9.14 Energi to Masternodes.
Since Treasury allocations are paid in two-week cycles, they are made in lump sums of approximately 184,000 Energi every 14 days.
In order to allow for widespread distribution of Energi before Masternode payments began, Masternode rewards were delayed until day 150. This was to allow the airdrop campaign to be completed and ensure a large amount of NRG is spread out through the community. Until that point, Masternode rewards were redirected to the Treasury. Thus for the first 5 months, the Treasury gained approximately 368,000 Energi every two weeks (about 800k Energi per month). The airdrop campaign was designed to release ~4 million Energi to the community.

4. How to Get Started

  • Energi Official Website
https://www.energi.world/

  • Social Media
Bitcointalk: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4912743
Discord: https://discordapp.com/invite/sCtgNC3
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/energicrypto/
Github: https://github.com/energicryptocurrency
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/energi-core/
Medium: https://medium.com/energi
Publish 0x: https://www.publish0x.com/@energi
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/energicryptocurrency/
Steemit: https://steemit.com/@energi
Telegram: https://t.me/energicrypto
Telegram Announcement: https://t.me/energiannouncements
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Energicrypto
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCCABQly0NNR2j_M_iDpy8mA/

  • Exchanges
DigiFinex: https://www.digifinex.com/trade/BTC/NRG
KuCoin - BTC: https://www.kucoin.com/trade/NRG-BTC
KuCoin - ETH: https://www.kucoin.com/trade/NRG-ETH
HitBTC - BTC: https://hitbtc.com/NRG-to-BTC
BitBNs - INR: https://bitbns.com/trade/#/nrg
Mercatox - BTC: https://mercatox.com/exchange/NRG/BTC
Mercatox - TUSD: https://mercatox.com/exchange/NRG/BTC
Bithumb - BTC: https://www.bithumb.pro/en-us/spot/trade?q=NRG-BTC
Bithumb - USDT: https://www.bithumb.pro/en-us/spot/trade?q=NRG-USDT
Citex - BTC: https://trade.citex.co.ktrade/NRG_BTC
Citex - USDT: https://trade.citex.co.ktrade/NRG_USDT
Beaxy - BTC: https://www.beaxy.com/trading-paiNRG-BTC
CoinAll - USDT: https://www.coinall.com/spot/full#product=nrg_usdt
WhiteBit - BTC: https://whitebit.com/trade/NRG_BTC
HitBTC - BTC: https://hitbtc.com/exchange/NRG-to-BTC

  • Energi Block Explorers
Gen 3 Explorer: https://explorer.energi.network/
Gen 3 Calculator: https://nexus.energi.network/reward-calculator
Gen 2 Explorer: https://explorer.gen2.energi.network/

  • Wallet Downloads
Gen 3 - MyEnergiWallet: https://docs.energi.software/en/downloads/myenergiwallet
Gen 3 - Core Node: https://docs.energi.software/en/downloads/core-node

  • Proof-of-Stake Setup Guides
https://docs.energi.software/en/staking-guide

  • Masternode Setup Guide
https://docs.energi.software/en/Masternode-guide

5. FAQs

Gen 3 Wiki: https://docs.energi.software/en/home
General: https://docs.energi.software/en/faq/general
Core Node Sync: https://docs.energi.software/en/core-node-troubleshoot
Keystore: https://docs.energi.software/en/faq/keystore
Masternode: https://docs.energi.software/en/faq/Masternode
Migration: https://docs.energi.software/en/faq/migration
Security: https://docs.energi.software/en/faq/security
Staking: https://docs.energi.software/en/faq/staking
submitted by energicrypto to energicryptocurrency [link] [comments]

Fun Fact: This is the closest a Millionaire Makers drawing thread will get to Christmas Eve! Comment to enter, and let’s make someone’s Christmas while we still can! [Drawing Thread #37]

OBLIGATORY EDIT: Thanks for the Silv'a, kind and generous stranger. For your generosity, have a video of Silver, from the hit video-game, Sonic the Hedgehog 2006, detailing the glorious benefits silver has on the Reddit culture! Thank you. (I hope you liked the joke.)

Santa Claus is coming! …and apparently it’s a 100,000 people in a red trench coat.

Edit: There are three deleted comments. The drill is to run the code again at 3:00 UTC, with a trial run before and after.
Quick Announcement:
On December 28, 2018, one week after this drawing, I will conduct a survey to help determine this subreddit’s direction. Additionally, the moderation team will unveil a new Discord server at the same time for our subscribers to discuss the subreddit and the drawing. Here are some questions you can expect (updated):
  • What day of the month would you like the /MillionaireMakers drawing to be held?
  • Should the code be further streamlined to acquire comment IDs at a faster and just pace? (Context: There's new code that can be used to prevent further cases of cheating, but it also changes the process.)
  • What is the best cryptocurrency blockchain to choose the winner from?
  • Should the [Drawing Thread] post's format be revamped in the future?
  • Should there be monthly or seasonal announcements the Monday of the [Drawing Thread]'s week?
If you would like to see something specific change over here at /MillionaireMakers, please click here! Your comments will help determine any additional questions the moderation team should ask the subscribers.
TL;DR: Leave a comment on this thread. A random user will be chosen, and everyone donates a dollar to make a millionaire. You are welcome to spread this thread via upvoting, telling friends and family, and sharing on social media! If you'd like to be reminded to donate to the winner by RemindMeBot, click here!
What is this, anyway?
Three years ago, a Redditor posted an idea in /Showerthoughts that speculated the fact, if a million people picked a certain Redditor and all donated just $1, they would have the power to make someone a millionaire.
This subreddit is an embodiment of that showerthought, and the monthly drawings are the attempts to make it happen.
We need your help to keep this running, which amounts to only $1 a month to make someone's day. In the long term, that’s $120 every decade, which is a much more affordable price than other expenses. How does it work? Below, you will find an explanation on entering, rules to keep in mind, the selection, and other important things to note.
How to enter:
  • REQUIRED: Leave only one (1) top level comment in reply to this thread! Replying to other comments will not count. It is highly recommended to comment "RemindMe! 3 days Donation for /millionairemakers", which will remind you via PM to donate.
Important Rules:
  • Only ONE top level comment per person (replies and subsequent-level comments aren't included), but feel free to reply to other comments. Making duplicate top level comments may result in exclusion from entering. Go to me to ensure you don't accidentally double comment.
  • If, by any chance, you do double comment, delete any extra duplicates ASAP, ideally before the thread is locked in 24 hours, as any chosen draws found to violate this will not be eligible to win, and will be banned from the subreddit.
  • Your account must be older than 30 days with some amount of activity. Throwaway accounts with very minimal activity will also not be eligible. This is to prevent multiple entries from the same person.
How will the winner be picked and how can you donate?
  • After 24 hours, this thread will close, and the method of selection will begin.
  • While attempts to make the selection method similar to 2017’s have been performed, it still varies from the original. For an example from a prior drawing, see [Draw #36]. For archival purposes, please click here for the original selection method.
  • Method's TL;DR: Your number is assigned by sorting the comments by old, so the first commenter will be 1, and the list of comments will be publicly released. The subreddit then waits for a randomly generated block (a string of numbers) from Bitcoin's blockchain, after a preselected date and time, and calculates the winner using a formula described in the posts mentioned above.
  • Comment IDs are downloaded at 2:00 UTC, three hours following the thread being locked. There will be a trial run prior to the time listed, one at the time listed, and one trial run thirty minutes after. If it is shown that the deletion of comments has occurred between any of the trial runs, or technical difficulties, the retrieval of the comments will be delayed by an hour, following the same procedures. For [Drawing Thread #37], this has occurred, and retrieval of comments will be delayed to 3:00 UTC.
  • While not necessary, to determine if you are on the list, please go to your comment and save it. The comment ID is what gets recorded and selected, which looks like this: e3yxpj4.
  • The user who created the winning comment will be informed of their luck and will provide any information necessary for their chosen payment methods (mods will help set this up if needed).
  • The generous Reddit community donates to this lucky person, hopefully making some worthy soul a millionaire! A donation table will be stickied to the winner’s post, giving users the freedom in how they donate.
  • The lucky Redditor follows up with a thank you within the next days, revealing to the community exactly how much was raised and thanking their generosity.
Reminders
  • Take the time you have available now to setup your PayPal, Square Cash, and Google Wallet account, and/or cryptocurrency wallets. (Note: Some services may not be available depending on where you reside.)
  • To buy any cryptocurrencies, you may use Coinbase for purchases using your bank account.
  • To store cryptocurrencies, there are many accessible wallets, and if you win, you will be guided on which ones to download. For Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash, it’s recommended to use the Electrum and Electron Cash wallet for Mac, Linux, and PC.
  • Please try your best to donate a $1, no matter who wins. Every single dollar, cent, anything really counts, so please take the effort to remember and go through with it.
  • If you want to be reminded to donate, please comment "RemindMe! 3 days Donation for /millionairemakers".
  • Spread the word! The more people who participate, the better this gets for everyone! There has been a correlation between this subreddit making it in /all and an increase in donations.
  • Try to cross-post to relevant subs, and upvote. There is a correlation between reaching /all and the amount of donations for the winner. (Please don't spam other subs though. We're not trying to make any enemies here.)
  • If you are under 18, please talk to your parents to get their consent to participate and use their help to setup a PayPal account.
MOST IMPORTANTLY
Remember, this is about generosity, making history, and coming together to make someone's life better. It takes three minutes to donate a bit to the winner, whether you're well off and want to donate a couple bucks, or going through tough times and can only donate a few pennies. Every cent counts.
Note about legality: This is NOT a lottery. You don't have to pay to enter. No prizes are given away directly by the moderators of this subreddit (the moderators will never even touch your donations; this is done voluntarily). As for gift taxes, according to the IRS they're generally paid by the donor, and any donations under $14,000 is not taxable.
If a lone $1 can get you a Dollar Tree-worthy present, imagine the possibilities with $1,000,000. You can go invite your family to a Disney World vacation, invite friends without hesitation, or put up Christmas decorations!
One million dollars can be enough to make someone’s Christmas. Spread the word: have your friends and family comment, post the link to your friendly-neighborhood social media network, and share it to anyone interested.
LET'S GIVE THE GIFT THAT KEEPS ON GIVING!
A Christmas delight,
With people dear, near, and cheer.
The winner’s tonight!
submitted by lilfruini to millionairemakers [link] [comments]

I calculated Ethereum's Stock-to-Flow value

I calculated Ethereum's Stock-to-Flow value
I just read two interesting posts from PlanB on:
And tried to calculate Ethereum's Stock-to-Flow value as well. It's a calculation to show the scarcity of an asset.
S2F (Stock-to-flow) = stock / flow
Stock is the size of the existing stockpiles or reserves. Flow is the yearly production.
As a reference here is a comparison from PlanB's post:
https://preview.redd.it/16qw2g2zsaz41.png?width=614&format=png&auto=webp&s=4c07cc3e218740dc1213aac1ec34fb6cccd4212e
Based on Ether's total supply and yearly issuance, I calculated the SF value from 2015 to 2021.

Year Total supply (end of the year) Yearly issuance S2F Note
2015 76140218 4054720 18.7 Data from Etherscan
2016 87462107 11321889 7.725045297 Data from Etherscan
2017 96692242 9230135 10.47571237 Data from Etherscan
2018 104124058 7431815 14.01058208 Data from Etherscan
2019 109094019 4969962 21.95067637 Data from Etherscan
2020 113000000 4000000 28.25 Data from Etherscan
2021 115000000 2000000 57.5 2 million if almost everyone stakes
2022 117000000 2000000 58.5 2 million if almost everyone stakes

Gold has the highest SF 62, which means it takes 62 years of production to get current gold stock, for Ether the estimated SF is 58.5 in 2022. After the recent halving, this is 50 for Bitcoin.

Important disclaimer:
Numbers are rough estimates, I got the data from etherscan and Cointelegraph (see them below) and aggregated in a spreadsheet. This calculation is far from perfect, I'm not a data analyst just a random dude killing the time on Sunday, so pls bear with me.
If you have any suggestions to further improve it or you have more exact numbers regarding supply, issuance, pls let me know and I will update the sheet.

Source:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/eth-20-issuance-will-be-2-million-a-year-at-most-says-vitalik
https://etherscan.io/charts#marketData
submitted by tamastorok to ethfinance [link] [comments]

Doing the Math on the S4E10 eCoin Transaction...

In this week's Mr Robot episode, Darlene sits on a park bench with Dom, and distributes the money she stole from the Deus Group to everybody, evenly. I timed the transaction as it happened in the show. It was 24 seconds, between her hitting return and seeing the following message on her screen: "*Transfers Complete. All Wallets Updated*" This processing time includes a message that says, "cleaning coins through crypto tumbler". It took 1 minute and 16 seconds for the transaction to tumble, process, and for the recipients to begin to get notices that they received money in their accounts.
If you have worked with bitcoin, you know that cryptocurrency does not work like this. Transferring money is a slow and sometimes expensive process, as transaction fees eat into every transaction. I know that eCoin isn't necissarily bitcoin, because it's controlled by eCorp, but it's fun to think about what happens if eCoin works like bitcoin does today...
How much money was transferred?
According to Forbes, the most wealthy people in the world are worth a combined $8.7 trillion, or $2.7 trillion. It depends on which Forbes list you are looking at. On the actual Forbes web site, they say the richest people in the world are worth $8.7 trillion, but they do not state how many of the richest people in the world are worth that much. If you look at sites like Victor Media, they publish a table of the 100 most wealthy people, and say they got the list from Forbes. They probably did purchase the list from Forbes. If I put the Victor Media list into excel, and add all the values in the net worth column, that number comes out to $2.7 trillion. So Forbes might be talking about a list that is more than the top 100 people, and sell the top 100 people list to sites like Victor Media? I don't know.
Either way, we are talking about somewhere between $2.7 and $8.7 trillion.
How many people did the money go to?
That's complicated. There was no global montage showing people celebrating all over the world (which I found a little surprising, even though I still love how this episode was shot). The only indication of a truly global transfer, to every individual in the world, is a TV screen in the airport saying that, "Global eCoin Payout... Deus group collapses as wealth spreads around the world." So Darlene could have sent the money to every individual with an eCoin wallet in the world, or she could be sending them to every American, or to everybody in the developed world. I doubt the average rice farmer in Indonesia is really using eCoin, but it's possible. If she only sent it to every American, our wealth tends to spread around the globe pretty fast, so that's possible, too.
Lets work with World Bank population numbers for all three of these possibilities...
World Population: 7.6 billion people
Global North (AKA the developed world): 1.24 billion people
United States: 327 million people
So we have 6 possibilities for how much money was sent to each person...
People Total Money Money Per Capita Satoshis
7.6 billion $2.7 trillion $355.53 4,739,471
1.21 billion $2.7 trillion $2230.82 29,741,808
327 million $2.7 trillion $8252.65 110,079,512
7.6 billion $8.7 trillion $1145.60 15,279,332
1.21 billion $8.7 trillion $7188.22 95,883,716
327 million $8.7 trillion $26591.89 355,275,242
How much would this transaction cost with bitcoin?
Aside from the fact that eCoin probably functions differently than bitcoin, this is a very complex question. I'm definitely not as sure about these numbers as the other numbers I have, but I'll do my best to come up with useful, realistic numbers. If you are more familiar with the block chain than me, please correct me.
The coins were taken from 100 different Deus Group accounts. Lets say each transaction launders through a bitcoin tumbler 1,000 times. I'm going to ignore transaction fees for the tumbling process, because I don't fully understand the details of tumbling, but 1,000 times seems reasonable to me.
That means that there are 100 x 1,000 = 10,000 inputs in any transaction that spends all the money from the Deus group.
For outputs... for simplicity's sake, I will make the conservative assumption that everybody has one eCoin wallet. That means somewhere between 327 million and 7.6 billion outputs. Accounting for everybody having multiple wallets would make the transaction even bigger, but this is a good starting point to get a feel for what this transaction would look like, in the real world.
How long will this transaction take to process?
There is a bidding process and a bit of politics involved in processing a cryptocurrency transaction. For simplicity, I'll assume we bid enough that this transaction gets priority treatment from the bitcoin miners.
According to blockchain.com, transactions happen on the block chain at a rate of roughly 3.5 transactions per second. At that rate, the tumbling would take roughly 48 minutes, rather than the few seconds it took for Darlene to tumble this money.
According to buybitcoinworldwide.com's fee calculator, here are the transaction sizes, the transaction fees involved (in US Dollars), and the time it would take at 3.5 transactions per second...
Inputs Outputs Size Cost Time
10,000 7.6 billion 240.4737 Gb $38,884,280.55 68.85 years
10,000 1.21 billion 38.32587 Gb $6,192,571.09 10.96 years
10,000 327 million 10.35582 Gb $1,673,260.46 2.96 years
So this transaction would take years to go through, and it pays Evil Corp somewhere between $1.6 and $38 million. In the real world, most of that money would go to Chinese bitcoin miners.
What would the impact be?
A one time windfall of $327 per capita would probably not trigger hyperinflation in America. The largest payout we calculated was $26.5k, and I doubt that would cause hyperinflation, either. Regular inflation? Yes. Hyperinflation? Probably not.
It might lead to hyperinflation in other countries, though, because of differences in purchasing power.
Purchasing power parity is a number that describes the differences in the cost of goods and services around the world. $5 in America will buy you a big mac, but if you go to, say, Indonesia, you can buy a lot more with that $5, because Indonesia is full of people who make something like 25 cents a week.
OECD.org publishes PPP (purchasing power parity) numbers for countries all around the world. If you want to know how far your dollar will stretch, on average, in a foreign country, consult this list. If you have $100 in America, you can expect it to be worth $100 worth of American goods and services, so on the OECD table, it has a PPP of 1.0. If you take that $100 to, say, the UK, where the PPP is 0.7, you can expect that $100 to be worth $70 worth of goods and services. If you take that $100 to Australia, where the PPP is 1.48, you can expect that $100 to buy roughly $148 worth of goods and services.
If Elliot and Darlene were genius economists, I might expect them to account for PPP in their payout. They would have to be geniuses, to predict what PPP is doing after events like the 5/9 hack, because their best data would be out of date, so they would have to use all kinds of fancy regressions and tricks to figure out how that would work in such a volatile world economy. They definitely aren't economists, though, so I'll assume they sent the same nominal amount to everybody.
So what's the range on how much purchasing power this transaction gives people around the world? In 2018, the highest PPP number on the OECD list is Indonesia, with a PPP of 4,245.613140. The lowest PPP on the list is Lithuania, with a PPP of 0.457582. Lets see how this shakes out in each of these countries...
$ Per Capita Lithuania (0.46) Indonesia (4,245.61)
$355.53 $162.68 $1,509,442.84
$2,230.82 $1,020.78 $9,471,198.70
$8,252.65 $3,776.26 $35,037,559.28
$1,145.60 $524.20 $4,863,774.41
$7,188.22 $3,289.20 $30,518,401.29
$26,591.89 $12,167.97 $112,898,877.60
What would this cause? People might predict a lot of different things. The Yang gang people probably strong opinions on this. I have a bachelor's degree in economics, so I believe I can predict that most mainstream economists would predict the following...
In Lithuania, when they get a few hundred to a few thousand dollars, they probably raise a pint to F Society, then put the rest towards a house or car payment, or buy themselves something nice. Minor inflation would happen, probably starting at the pubs, and that would worry financial types, but it would not cause any kind of major economic catastrophe.
In Indonesia, where everybody becomes an asset millionaire overnight, they will probably have hyperinflation, mass social upheaval, and violence.
In conclusion...
TL;DR: What Darlene did last night with eCoin isn't actually possible with bitcoin, and the impact in America might not be as great as you think, but the impact would be much bigger in poorer parts of the world.
submitted by bubblesort to MrRobot [link] [comments]

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.

Stock Market Crash

The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.

Economic Analysis of Bitcoin

The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.

Trading or Investing?

The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.

Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin

Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
  • Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
  • VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
  • Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.

Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin

Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.

Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin

Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
  • Yearly Lows (last seven years): 1/1/13, 4/10/14, 1/15/15, 1/17/16, 1/1/17, 12/15/18, 2/6/19
  • Monthly Mode: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 12
  • Daily Mode: 1, 1, 6, 10, 15, 15, 17
  • Monthly Lows (for the last year): 3/12/20 (10:00pm), 2/28/20 (7:09am), 1/2/20 (8:09pm), 12/18/19 (8:00am), 11/25/19 (1:00am), 10/24/19 (2:59am), 9/30/19 (2:59am), 8/29,19 (4:00am), 7/17/19 (7:59am), 6/4/19 (5:59pm), 5/1/19 (12:00am), 4/1/19 (12:00am)
  • Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
  • Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
  • Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
  • Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
  • 2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
  • 3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
  • 5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
  • 5/26/20 – hashrate difficulty halvening
  • 11/14/20 – stock market low
  • 1/15/21 – yearly low for BTC, around $8528
  • 8/19/21 – end of stock bear market
  • 11/26/21 – eighteen months from halvening, average peak from halvenings (BTC begins rising from $3000 area to above $23,312)
  • 4/23/22 – all-time high
Taken from my blog: http://aliamin.info/2020/
submitted by aibnsamin1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

D100 Ways to Mess With "I wish for all the gold in the world!"

  1. It rains down on the character and kills them
  2. Infinite gold is just a single gold piece that constantly reappears in your pocket after being spent
  3. That's the gold from the town treasury used to pay it's workers, now there's rioting in the streets
  4. Can't be arsed to go through all the comments but all the gold could teleport back into the interior of the world - to the mines it originated in or just like dispersed through the mantle again?
  5. All of the gold in the world is condensed into one single coin that flotas in front of the wishmaker for a few seconds. When he goes to grab it, it stops floating and the combined mass of all the gold in the world is to heavy for any mortal to hold. It tears through his hand and throws him to the ground, leaving a 20 meter wide crater where the coin landed. Nothing can pick up the coin, but that just means that no one can steal it from the wish maker.
  6. Everyone in the world gains the belief that gold is your personal property and feels weird about possessing it. It's like an old roommate's CDs, or an ex boyfriend's hoodie. They'll put the same amount of effort into returning it to you, but only when it's convenient. You can't really spend it anywhere either, unless they have an unhealthy desire for your possessions.
  7. "ok it's all yours, go get it". (no gold moves)
  8. Trade continues with coins made of other metals, and gold is a weird fringe metal that nobody will honor
  9. All your gear is now gilded, and all other gold coins lose their color. Nobody other than you remembers the old color of gold
  10. The uncaring diety that granted your wish also brought all the dragons that guarded hoards of gold
  11. All the gold from underground bursts from the earth in front of you, with no convenient way to move it.
  12. All the gold in the rest of the world disappears. Widespread chaos and confusion reigns. Literally all the gold in the world is carried in his pack. No gold in temple decorations.. magical items with gold no longer work.. etc.
  13. The world is not defined as this world. You got all the gold in the only diamond world, so, none.
  14. "All the gold in the world" was a poem written by a bad bard. You get a worthless piece of paper with a lackluster poem.
  15. "All the Gold" is almost dead nag of a riding horse and was in the world. The rapid trip to get to you kills it.
  16. You are encumbered by the gold in your possession and can not empty your inventory fast enough to escape encumbrance in the middle of nowhere. (Hope a town eventually forms around you fast.)
  17. You get what you wish and everyone and everything else knows it, but, you do not immediately know. (good luck with all the thieves, assassins, nobles, bandits, demons, etc. gunning for you and your gold.)
  18. Every creature that falls under "fae" or similar are forced to deliver the gold to you. Everyone from a common fairy to fae deities come one after the other, each with only one gold piece until you have all the gold in the world. They're concious of their actions but can't move freely until the deed is done. Who knows what they'd do to you once they regain control of their bodies
  19. You get the gold... but its somewhere. Good luck finding it.
  20. All the gold in the world, except for what’s on your person, vanishes in an instant.
  21. All gold within 60’ of the wish maker flies to them as metal to a powerful magnet and sticks to them. They can only remove gold from their body that they are giving/donating to a person, cause, church, or kingdom/city-state, empire etc. (the person must be a stranger or passing acquaintance, no more than that, or they are using as payment for goods or services or repaying a financial debt. STR checks for movement and CON checks to remain standing will eventually be needed.
  22. Gold-rust monster.
  23. They get all the gold in the world in a spendable and secure manner. But some of that gold is cursed by various wizards and magical entities in various ways for various reasons. The owner of it now bears at least a dozen unrelated curses, maybe more.
  24. You get all the gold but now no one has any so it holds no value. We move back into a barter system until a new form of currency can be established.
  25. They get midas' touch and everything they touch turns into gold but if they touch a creature the creatures gains +5 ac and can still attack and move normally
  26. The character becomes coated in gold, lowering mobility but greatly increasing defense
  27. All gold not owned by them turns into silver.
  28. They get their gold, only to find that the primary currency is now platinum. Gold is now only used as a component some spells, or for the properties of the material itself.
  29. All the gold in the world disappears. There is no gold, so you have all that there is.
  30. The gold stays where it is but technically IS their property. Good luck convincing everyone else that...
  31. All of the gold in the world immediately teleports to their location, killing the PC immediately via crushing and flattening entire cities at once beneath thousands of tons of gold ore, coins, and dust
  32. Ok, you now own all the gold in the world. However, it is still located exactly where it was before. You own it but it hasn't moved. Go get it if you want. And try convince the current possessor of it that you are the owner.
  33. All the gold comes with all the dragons...
  34. .. they cant physically shift the huge mountain of gold and people come from far and wide to take a wheelbarrow full of gold that is too large to be protected by the party..
  35. Theres no gold anywhere else so everyone reverts to spending lead coins instead. Gold decreases in value substantially. ...
  36. All the gold in the world technically belongs to the player but it's still wherever it was before he/she owned it. It now depicts the players head on every coin and people everywhere say things like "hey I know you you're from money!" Etc
  37. It’s in bitcoin, what’s bitcoin? Just wait a couple thousand years.
  38. Because wishes are directed to the gods themselves, and they see the entire universe as their "world" the gold from all around the universe is summoned to the PC's or NPC's location, the sheer amount of gold is so large that the entire planet is destroyed, along with any moons it might have, if the dm decides that the universe the campaign is in is very very very VERY rich in gold, he might aswell say that because so much gold was teleported to a specific location, it collapsed upon itself and formed a black hole.
  39. Your players hear a loud, familiar sound of earth moving as if an earth elemental started traveling beneath them. Your player hears something rustle in the grass, PC looks down and there, under a dead leaf, lies a single spec of gold ore. Pulled from the earth they stand on the gold ore inside the earth always moves up towards the player. If they stay in one spot for longer than a week it begins to pile.
  40. It is in one enormous coin, and nobody can make change. You try to break it into smaller pieces, but are stopped by the authorities because it has the emperor's face on it.
  41. Everyone else will see the color gold as a muted grey.
  42. You now possess all the gold in the world, but now everyone wants to kill you for it
  43. The wisher get the world's supply of fool's gold (pyrite). Hope they enjoy the irony.
  44. Every sentient creature is "informed" that you are now the owner of all the gold in the world. No gold actually moves anywhere and it is up to you to enforce your righteous claim.
  45. The color "gold" is suddenly drained from all things which become more brown or yellow. Now only you can bestow this color onto objects and creatures.
  46. You get your wish, but no one has any gold left so the economy crashes.
  47. All the gold in the world includes the gold guarded by every dragon. Bringing the gold to you also brings you its previous owner or notifies them of your act.
  48. This could also be applied to innumerable other monsters as well.
  49. At first, the gold rivers streaming through the air above the wisher's location is amazing. Verucai Saltberry can eat her heart out. Then, as the rivers make landfall, a nervous quiet overcomes all those who witness the spectacle.
  50. All the gold in the world now rains down upon their location.
  51. After half of one hour, 2d12 * 10 acres are covered in anything made of gold. Coins. Ore. Candelabras. You name it. I don't think there are enough dice to calculate the weight...
  52. Hot molten gold floods in your direction
  53. The world decides that gold is now useless since no one has it. They switch to using electrum.
  54. You get it. Exactly as you intended, all the gold coins in the world. But, every dragon, king, crime boss, even members of your own party just had all their gold stolen from them, and they aren't happy about it.
  55. The color gold dissapears from everything in the world unless it is owned by the wisher. Gold is suddenly indistinguishable from silver except by alchemists and smiths and dragons. As a trade currency it becomes almost worthless. The economy plunges into turmoil and as the value of gold plummets so do dragons interest in it. The land devolves into chaos as they suddenly struggle to work out wealth. Gems and iron both skyrocket in value. Dragons, furious at their essentially worthless hordes that they’ve amassed over the years rage across the land. Gold dragons go black. They’ve lost their color. There is a sudden increase in black dragons. Chaos takes hold and the black dragons start taking over the land.
  56. All the gold in the world disappears leaving only what they have on their person
  57. The dragons of the world soon realize where their horde has been taken. They all have you in their sight.
  58. It’s in one solid brick that’s practically worthless for the size
  59. You find yourself atop a mountain of all of the world's gold. Every greedy dragon in the world will soon be converging on your location to fight for this prize, with you in the middle. This being all the gold, that pile includes the scales from every gold dragon in the world, which you've just forcibly torn apart with your wish. Even the good-aligned dragons now see you as a genocidal monster that must be destroyed for the safety of their own kind. Your death is suddenly the singular goal that unites almost every dragon in the world. Also, all Electrum becomes a sort of brittle silver. That will please our DM, who hates having to include electrum coins in currency conversions.
  60. "Granted" and it seems as if nothing happens.Then, after a moment passes, there is a slight thump nearby.And then something light hits the player, rattling off of him, looking down he sees a small, wonderful necklace with a lithe, golden chain attached to it.And then a coin lands next to it.And then another.And another.The sound of falling gold escalates, turning into a storming, crashing chaos as all gold in the entire world falls from the sky in a roaring hail of death.And then all is silent, coins, jewelry, ore, newly refined gold and everything else stands as a small mountain where once there was a campsite and a forest, all of the players are dead or dying underneath that silent, golden hill.
  61. The planet's core loses all of its gold, which, in a supercritical molten state, appears floating as a series of masses overhead. This explodes and showers the area in forcefully-flung chunks of gold. Good job.
  62. The gods of wealth and trade are suddenly obliterated, and you are filled with divine power contained only by your mortal vessel, which wrecks havok on the divine realms and the mortal world. You probably don't survive. Good job.
  63. The gold is helpfully contained for you, and only consists of gold coins! ...Unfortunately, they appear in every single container or vessel you own or touch, forever, making it impossible to eat or drink except off the ground and makes clothing, home ownership, or trade tricky. Good job.
  64. They now own the license to obscure Half-Orc Bard Elzic Pagavian's folk album "All the gold in the world". Elzic is, however, an extremely competent adventurer and will not stand for having his art stolen out from under him.
  65. The power behind the wish misunderstands the intent and makes the wisher the only person to have a thing of that color.
  66. They get all the gold in the world, being the only one to posses gold, it becomes useless and the world's currency standards change.
  67. They didn't specify which world, molten gold pours in from a fire world
  68. Granted, since they specified “in the world” they now have a mountain sized pile of unrefined and impure Gold Ore, this pisses off all the Dwarvern clans as each ones mining operation is funded mostly by processing and selling Gold and similar materials. You and the party are now enemies of every dwarf Clan and their allies.
  69. I started an entire campaign with a similar premise involving a lamp, an efreet, and a Wish. I had a kingdom's worth of gold appear in a magical bag (like a bag of holding), but it was a solid cube that couldn't be pulled through the tiny opening of its container. Made for a lot of memorable scheming on the part of the players!
  70. They get all the gold in the world, the economy is no longer based on gold as there is none in circulation, brass coins replace gold coins
  71. You immediately stand upon a mountain of all the gold in the world. Seeing as you are the only one who has any, Silver becomes the dominant currency, making gold worthless. In addition, you piss off several dragons with hoards. At the same time, most kingdoms fall into financial ruin as they desperately attempt to find a new currency. While all this is happening, sinkholes begin to appear around the world as huge underground deposits of gold have vanished, allowing the ground to give way.
  72. All the gold not owned by the players is suddenly converted into silver. Currency now takes up 10x the amount of space which means any storage suddenly becomes limited.
  73. For the wealthy lords, it’s a nuisance that their pockets are suddenly weighed down or overflowing. For the banks that have just exploded... it’s a different matter.
  74. All the gold deposits from underground are drawn to the PCs creating huge destructive geysers and destroying everything in their path on the way to them.
  75. All the gold deposits from underground are drawn to the PCs creating huge destructive geysers and destroying everything in their path on the way to them.
  76. They start magnetically attracting every coin they walk by forever.
  77. All the gold in the world disappears and the world is changed to a paper-money system. The gold you have is the only gold remaining in the world, but it is useless as a currency. Maybe some alchemist will buy it from you?
  78. The rest of the gold in the world disappears, all that's left is what three player has on them
  79. Assuming they mean currency they're giving all the gold in the world translated into copper and they need to find a way to haul the several million metric tons of copper they have now. assuming they mean or they are now surrounded by all currently existing veins of unrefined gold ore
  80. The player now owns all the gold in the world... And the accompanying tax bill.
  81. Elderly people appear
  82. You get all the Gold in the world, and everyone is hunting you for thievery
  83. Gold is molten, appears in your pocket
  84. total collapse of the gold economy because there’s a lot more gold beneath the crust than in it, and it’s all technically in the world
Contributions by: Everyone who commented
submitted by ThatDnder to d100 [link] [comments]

Winter is coming, get ready to overthrow the establishment! (I mean, make a millionaire.) [Drawing Thread #38]

It's cold. (I've never watched an episode of Game of Thrones, please enjoy the reference if it makes sense! If it doesn't, it's treason, then. And if I made anyone cringe, I'm sorry. )

In Case You Missed It:
TL;DR: Leave a comment on this thread. A random user will be chosen, and everyone donates a dollar to make a millionaire. You are welcome to spread this thread via upvoting, telling friends and family, and sharing on social media! If you'd like to be reminded to donate to the winner by RemindMeBot, click here!
What is this, anyway?
Three years ago, a Redditor posted an idea in /Showerthoughts that speculated the fact, if a million people picked a certain Redditor and all donated just $1, they would have the power to make someone a millionaire.
This subreddit is an embodiment of that showerthought, and the monthly drawings are the attempts to make it happen.
We need your help to keep this running, which amounts to only $1 a month to make someone's day. In the long term, that’s $120 every decade, which is a much more affordable price than other expenses. How does it work? Below, you will find an explanation on entering, rules to keep in mind, the selection, and other important things to note.
How to enter:
  • REQUIRED: Leave only one (1) top level comment in reply to this thread! Replying to other comments will not count. It is highly recommended to comment "RemindMe! 3 days Donation for /millionairemakers", which will remind you via PM to donate.
Important Rules:
  • Only ONE top level comment per person (replies and subsequent-level comments aren't included), but feel free to reply to other comments. Making duplicate top level comments may result in exclusion from entering. Go to me to ensure you don't accidentally double comment.
  • If, by any chance, you do double comment, delete any extra duplicates ASAP, ideally before the thread is locked in 24 hours, as any chosen draws found to violate this will not be eligible to win, and will be banned from the subreddit.
  • Your account must be older than 30 days with some amount of activity. Throwaway accounts with very minimal activity will also not be eligible. This is to prevent multiple entries from the same person.
How will the winner be picked and how can you donate?
  • After 24 hours, this thread will close, and the method of selection will begin.
  • While attempts to make the selection method similar to 2017’s have been performed, it still varies from the original. For an example from a prior drawing, see [Draw #36]. For archival purposes, please click here for the original selection method.
  • Method's TL;DR: Your number is assigned by sorting the comments by old, resulting in the first commenter being 1. The list of comments will be publicly released for the community to verify per their own accord. The subreddit then waits for a randomly generated block (a string of numbers) from Bitcoin's blockchain, after a preselected date and time, and calculates the winner using a formula described in the posts mentioned above.
  • Comment IDs are downloaded at 2:00 UTC, three hours following the thread being locked. There will be a trial run prior to the time listed, one at the time listed, and one trial run thirty minutes after. If it is shown that the deletion of comments has occurred between any of the trial runs, or technical difficulties, the retrieval of the comments will be delayed by an hour, following the same procedures.
  • While not necessary, to determine if you are on the list, please go to your comment and save it. The comment ID is what gets recorded and selected, which looks like this: e3yxpj4.
  • The user who created the winning comment will be informed of their luck and will provide any information necessary for their chosen payment methods (mods will help set this up if needed).
  • The generous Reddit community donates to this lucky person, hopefully making some worthy soul a millionaire! A donation table will be stickied to the winner’s post, giving users the freedom in how they donate.
  • The lucky Redditor follows up with a thank you within the next days, revealing to the community exactly how much was raised and thanking their generosity.
Reminders
  • Take the time you have available now to setup your PayPal, Square Cash, and Google Wallet account, and/or cryptocurrency wallets. (Note: Some services may not be available depending on where you reside.)
  • To buy any cryptocurrencies, you may use Coinbase for purchases using your bank account.
  • To store cryptocurrencies, there are many accessible wallets, and if you win, you will be guided on which ones to download. For Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash, it’s recommended to use the Electrum and Electron Cash wallet for Mac, Linux, and PC.
  • Please try your best to donate a $1, no matter who wins. Every single dollar, cent, anything really counts, so please take the effort to remember and go through with it.
  • If you want to be reminded to donate, please comment "RemindMe! 3 days Donation for /millionairemakers".
  • Spread the word! The more people who participate, the better this gets for everyone! There has been a correlation between this subreddit making it in /all and an increase in donations.
  • Try to cross-post to relevant subs, and upvote. There is a correlation between reaching /all and the amount of donations for the winner. (Please don't spam other subs though. We're not trying to make any enemies here.)
  • If you are under 18, please talk to your parents to get their consent to participate and use their help to setup a PayPal account.
MOST IMPORTANTLY
Remember, this is about generosity, making history, and coming together to make someone's life better. It takes three minutes to donate a bit to the winner, whether you're well off and want to donate a couple bucks, or going through tough times and can only donate a few pennies. Every cent counts.
Note about legality: This is NOT a lottery. You don't have to pay to enter. No prizes are given away directly by the moderators of this subreddit (the moderators will never even touch your donations; this is done voluntarily). As for gift taxes, according to the IRS, they're paid by the donor, and any donations under $14,000 is not taxable.
If a lone $1 can get you ice cream (I did eat a Frosty this week), imagine the possibilities with $1,000,000. You can start a loan for a new vehicle, raise money for a TV, or pay gas bills to stay warm!
One million dollars can keep someone from the pain of the frost and cold. Spread the word: have your friends and family comment, post the link to your friendly-neighborhood social media network, and share it to anyone interested.
Let's heat a millionaire!
The cold of the night,
Whether sweaters or letters,
Today, set things right!
submitted by lilfruini to millionairemakers [link] [comments]

Upon the Fortune of this Present Year | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - November 2019

My ventures are not in one bottom trusted, Nor to one place; nor is my whole estate Upon the fortune of this present year Therefore my merchandise makes me not sad
Shakespeare, The Merchant of Venice (1596)
This is my thirty-sixth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goals.
Portfolio goals
My objectives are to reach a portfolio of:
Both of these are based on an expected average real return of 4.19 per cent, or a nominal return of 7.19 per cent, and are expressed in 2018 dollars.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $797 618 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $45 218 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $81 294 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $109 367 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $158 769 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $28 471 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $268 114 Telstra shares (TLS) – $2 057 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $9 996 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $8 100 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $98 376 Secured physical gold – $15 868 Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $16 915 Bitcoin – $128 630 Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $17 535 Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 377 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 418
Total portfolio value: $1 793 753 (+$33 713)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 43.2% (1.8% under) Global shares – 22.9% Emerging markets shares – 2.4% International small companies – 3.2% Total international shares – 28.4% (1.6% under) Total shares – 71.6% (3.4% under) Total property securities – 0.2% (0.2% over) Australian bonds – 4.8% International bonds – 9.8% Total bonds – 14.6% (0.4% under) Gold – 6.4% Bitcoin – 7.2% Gold and alternatives – 13.5% (3.5% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
This month the value of the portfolio increased again by around $33 000 in total, building on the previous two months of growth.
[Chart]
The equity part of the portfolio has grown by around $50 000 to now reach over $1.25 million for the first time. This increase includes new contributions and the last part of the previous June distributions being 'averaged into' equity markets. The equity component of the portfolio has increased by around 40 per cent this calendar year.
The only other major movement in the monthly value of the portfolio has been a sharp downward movement in the price of Bitcoin, and a small increase in the value of bond holdings.
[Chart]
The contributions this month went entirely into the Vanguard Australian shares ETF (VAS.ASX), to reduce the gap to both the overall target equity allocation, and to achieve the target split between Australian and global shares. From this month onwards I expect more regular variations in whether new contributions go to either Australian or global shares, based on keeping this target allocation constant.
Charting errors and wrong bearings - the nature of long-term returns
Over the last month, as the end destination starts to appear a little clearer in the distance, the issue of the nature of long-term returns has been front of mind.
There is a strong literature and body of academic work around long-term equity return expectations. Much of this has informed my thinking, and has over time found its way into the corners of financial independence movement through the avenues of the so-called Trinity and Bengen '4 per cent' studies (pdf), and a range of calculators that use historical data to help guide investors expectations around feasible future returns.
Yet, as I have noted before, future states of the world are not drawn from the same distribution as the past - or as the British writer G K Chesterton evocatively put it - 'wildness lies in wait'. Most often this issue is glided over neatly (including by myself) with assured sounding phrases such as 'based on history'.
The works of Nassim Taleb, most particularly Fooled by Randomness, and The Black Swan, provide a fuller perspective on these issues. Recently though, reading a 2017 paper Stock Market Charts You Never Saw provided a unique and arresting view of their application to long-term return projections.
The paper is long and detailed, but makes some fundamental points for consideration. It provides a challenging perspective on investment returns that falls almost completely out of mainstream discussions of the topic in the financial independence arena.
To summarise, the paper highlights that:
As the paper notes:
"When investment advisors counsel that stocks are the best bet for a long investment horizon, they should append the acknowledgement: “if my market timing is good.” When advisors argue for stocks over bonds, they should append the caveat “as long as you are not French, or Italian, or Japanese, or Swiss, and provided that the 20th century is a better guide to the future than the 19th century.” For real investors with their limited time horizons, who may reside anywhere in the world, there have been times when both stock recommendations were bad."
The issue of the primacy of total returns, compared to income returns is also bracingly challenged with reference to the drawdown phase:
Once portfolio accumulation ceases with retirement, portfolio income must be spent to live. Under those circumstances real price return, over short periods lasting two or three decades, becomes an important metric. By that measure, an investment in stocks has been dicey indeed.
Usefully, the paper sets out (at the end) both conventional charts, and alternative representations of the same returns data, aimed at illustrating the hidden biases and properties of standard charts of market returns.
In short, the paper poses challenges to many conventional investment tenets assumed to be true and widely repeated within financial independence discussions. Often these tenets are promoted with the sound and well-meaning goal of reducing new or existing investors caution or level of worry around possible falls in equity markets. The question this work implicitly poses is, in the process, are distorted expectations unintentionally being promoted?
Drawing out the lessons - understanding and responding to risks
What are the practical implications of this? The most obvious is to look closely at how data is presented and to think carefully about how the assumptions implicit in that presentation line up against ones own situation.
Some other implications include:
In other words - to paraphrase Shakespeare's Antonio - not trusting ones ventures to one ship, place, or a fortune upon the present year.
Progress
Progress against the objectives, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets Objective #1 – $1 598 000 (or $67 000 pa) 112.2% 153.0% Objective #2 – $1 980 000 (or $83 000 pa) 90.6% 123.5% Credit card purchases - $73 000 pa 103.0% 140.4% Total expenses - $89 000 pa 84.5% 115.1%
Summary
As the year begins to draw to a close, a restlessness to see its final outcomes, in dividends and portfolio growth presses itself forward. It is in fact a small echo of one of the strong temptations of the middle of the FI journey - a desire to wish away time itself.
Some potential upcoming changes and uncertainties in work situation have added force to this temptation, forcing some thoughts about different potential balances between work and other elements of daily life could be.
By distance, the intended journey is around ninety per cent over. At times this introduces both an elegiac quality to, and a premature desire to mark, possible 'lasts' along the journey.
Yet the extraordinary current state of financial markets gives pause. Policy makers and advisors casually discuss negative rates and their implications, even as Australian and US equity markets hit new highs. In a sense, it feels a more psychologically testing time to be closer to my higher target allocation for equities than any time before.
The diversification in the portfolio can be thought of as a series of small hedges against different potential futures playing out. By far, the largest probability (or potential future) at 75 per cent, is that the historical dominance of equity as a generator of real returns continues to function.
The remainder of the portfolio can be seen in some ways as a offsetting hedge against large equity market falls, or some other disturbance in financial markets with negative implications for equity. At base, however, I remain comfortable with the 'balance of probabilities' implied in the target asset allocation.
This month saw a new (v)blogger Mx Lauren join the Australian FI scene, as well as the suggestion by Money Magazine of a new 'simplified' retirement rule of thumb to consider.
A further piece of fascinating reading was this piece by Ben Carlson in Fortune Magazine, explaining the key role of earnings growth in recent US market return. It posits that the recent strong performance of US equities is attributable to fundamental earnings growth, rather than simply an unjustified expansion in the price investors are willing to pay for that growth.
This - in addition to Shakespeare's pre-modern enjoinment to diversify - is potentially another reason to not confine considerations to one market, and one place, as December distributions slowly drift into sight.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

BitOffer Institute: After halving, Bitcoin likely hitting above 100k

BitOffer Institute: After halving, Bitcoin likely hitting above 100k

https://preview.redd.it/f9f8sdabmm851.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=c035a14edf1bffeceee3db7dba24e28bb6cdc653
The currency founding block was born on January 3, 2009. Satoshi Nakamoto designs that the miners can obtain 50 BTC rewards with the packaging of one block. The number of bitcoins created about every 10 minutes which has halved every four years from 2012. Since the maximum supply of bitcoins is 21 million, halving means it will take longer for all bitcoins to circulation. But it also means there will be limited bitcoins over time. Historically, halving bitcoin has proven to be an important catalyst for a new bull market in the currency.
On November 28, 2012, bitcoin been halved for the first time, alongside with block awards reduced from 50 BTCS per 10 minutes to 25. The total issued amount of BTC is 21 million, with the improvement of people’s cognition and consensus on Bitcoin, the scarcity of Bitcoin shows obvious after halved. While other factors in the market remain stable, the relationship between supply and demand will determine the price of goods.
In 2012, before the halving, the price of Bitcoin was around $12. After November 28, the price rose to the peak of $1,175. On December 4, 2013, the price doubled by 100 times and set an all-time high for Bitcoin at that time. This has helped the earlier bitcoin owners to achieve wealth freedom and increased the public awareness of the value of bitcoin.
On July 9, 2016, the 420,000th bitcoin block was completed, and the block reward was halved for the second time, which reduced from 25 BTC in 10 minutes to 12.5. This halving increased the scarcity of Bitcoin and alongside with the bull market of Bitcoin again.
At the second halving, the price of bitcoin was around $660, after the halving, the price firstly experienced more than three months of backtracking, then suffered over seven months of sideways trading, eventually skyrocketed. By December 16, 2017, the price of Bitcoin reached $19,991 at its peak, a new record with an increase of nearly 30 times.
After twice time of bull markets in which bitcoin was halved, many institutions stepped into the market, countless investors saw the infinite possibilities of its future. Image how long would it take a traditional industry to multiply its capital 30 times? But in the currency circle, it only takes one year, which is why institutions and retail investors are unanimously bullish on Bitcoin, and many even use it as a tool to avoid risks.
This year marks the third time that bitcoin has halved. On May 12, the number of bitcoin block awards was reduced from 12.5 to 6.25. According to the results of the previous halving, where does the price will go?

https://preview.redd.it/9hgnln2emm851.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce37be510e643d9aa2daa690ec4a2b569b771508
Through the halving, numerous investors have seen the huge business opportunity behind Bitcoin. In earlier 2020, many large organization institutions started to lay out BTC. According to a recent report released by Glassnode, the number of whales that holding more than 1,000 bitcoins has increased sharply since 2016. This data reflects a strong bullish signal after Bitcoin halved for the third time.
After the first time of halving, the price of Bitcoin increased more than 100 times, and after the first time of halving, the price of Bitcoin increased more than 30 times. History doesn’t repeat itself — but it often rhymes. According to Lucian, the chief analyst at BitOffer Exchange, said that the bitcoin will have a bull market within a few months after the halving, with the increase of at least 10 times, that is, it is expected to break the $100,000 price.
Therefore, it is the best time to buy Bitcoin. However, rather than buying Bitcoin, it is better to trade Bitcoin ETF at BitOffer, which starts with a minimum yield of 3 times. Besides, it also includes the intelligent dynamic warehousing mechanism and the calculation of fund compound interest, with a maximum yield of 17 times. If the price of bitcoin goes up more than 10 times, the ETF will go up as much as 170 times. Without a doubt, the Bitcoin ETF is the best investment choice.
submitted by Bitoffer_Official to BitOffer_Official [link] [comments]

Bitcoin 11 Years - Achievements, Lies, and Bullshit Claims So Far - Tooootally NOT a SCAM !!!!

That's right folks, it's that time again for the annual review of how Bitcoin is going: all of those claims, predictions, promises .... how many have turned out to be true, and how many are completely bogus ???
Please post / link this on Bitcoin (I am banned there for speaking the truth, so I cannot do it) ... because it'a way past time those poor clueless mushrooms were exposed to the truth.
Anyway, without further ado, I give you the Bitcoin's Achievements, Lies, and Bullshit Claims So Far ...
.
Bitcoin Achievements so far:
  1. It has spawned a cesspool of scams (2000+ shit coin scams, plus 100's of other scams, frauds, cons).
  2. Many 1,000's of hacks, thefts, losses.
  3. Illegal Use Cases: illegal drugs, illegal weapons, tax fraud, money laundering, sex trafficking, child pornography, hit men / murder-for-hire, ransomware, blackmail, extortion, and various other kinds of fraud and illicit activity.
  4. Legal Use Cases: Steam Games, Reddit, Expedia, Stripe, Starbucks, 1000's of merchants, cryptocurrency conferences, Ummm ????? The few merchants who "accept Bitcoin" immediately convert it into FIAT after the sale, or require you to sell your coins to BitPay or Coinbase for real money, and will then take that money. Some of the few who actually accept bitcoin haven't seen a customer who needed to pay with bitcoin for the last six months, and their cashiers no longer know how to handle that.
  5. Contributing significantly to Global Warming.
  6. Wastes vasts amounts of electricity on useless, do nothing work.
  7. Exponentially raises electricity prices when big miners move into regions where electricity was cheap.
  8. It’s the first "currency" that is not self-sustainable. It operates at a net loss, and requires continuous outside capital to replace the capital removed by miners to pay their costs. It’s literally a "black hole currency."
  9. It created a new way for people living too far from Vegas to gamble all their life savings away.
  10. Spawned "blockchain technology", a powerful technique that lets incompetent programmers who know almost nothing about databases, finance, programming, or blockchain scam millions out of gullible VC investors, banks, and governments.
  11. Increased China's foreign trade balance by a couple billion dollars per year.
  12. Helped the FBI and other law enforcement agents easily track down hundreds of drug traffickers and drug users.
  13. Wasted thousands if not millions of man-hours of government employees and legislators, in mostly fruitless attempts to understand, legitimize, and regulate the "phenomenon", and to investigate and prosecute its scams.
  14. Rekindled the hopes of anarcho-capitalists and libertarians for a global economic collapse, that would finally bring forth their Mad Max "utopia".
  15. Added another character to Unicode (no, no, not the "poo" 💩 character ... that was my first guess as well 🤣)
  16. Provides an easy way for malware and ransomware criminals to ply their trade and extort hospitals, schools, local councils, businesses, utilities, as well as the general population.
.
Correct Predictions:
  1. 2015-12: "1,000 dollar in 2015", u/Luka_Magnotta, aka time traveler from the future, 31-Aug-2013, https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_timetraveler_from_the_future_here_to_beg/ (Technically, this prediction is WRONG because the highest price reached in 2015 was $495.56 according to CMC. Yes, Bitcoin reached $1,000 in 2013 and 2014, but that's NOT what the prediction says).
  2. 2017-12: "10,000 in 2017", u/Luka_Magnotta, aka time traveler from the future, 31-Aug-2013, https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_timetraveler_from_the_future_here_to_beg/
  3. 2018-04: $10,000 (by April 2018), Mike Novogratz, link #1: https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/, link #2: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-21/mike-novogratz-says-bitcoin-will-end-the-year-at-10-000
  4. 2018-12: $10,000 (by 2018), Tim Draper, link #1: https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/, link #2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3AW5s6QkRRY
  5. Any others ? (Please tell me).
.
Bitcoin Promises / Claims / Price Predictions that turned out to be lies and bullshit:
  1. ANONYMOUS
  2. CENSORSHIP RESISTANT
  3. FRICTIONLESS
  4. TRUSTLESS
  5. UNCENSORABLE
  6. UNTRACEABLE
  7. SAFE
  8. SECURE
  9. YOU CANNOT LOSE
  10. NOT A SCAM
  11. PERMISSIONLESS
  12. GUARANTEED PRIVACY
  13. CANNOT BE SEIZED
  14. CANNOT BE CONFISCATED
  15. Be your own bank
  16. Regulation-proof
  17. NO MIDDLEMEN
  18. DECENTRALIZED
  19. Instantaneous transactions
  20. Fast transactions
  21. Zero / No transaction fees
  22. Low transaction fees
  23. A store of value
  24. A deflationary digital asset
  25. "A deflationary digital asset that no single human being can destroy."
  26. "an asset that is equally as dual use as a car, water, or any other traditional element that has existed."
  27. "Digital gold"
  28. Easy to use
  29. Cannot be stolen
  30. Cannot be hacked
  31. Can be mined by anyone
  32. Can be mined by anyone, even with an old computer or laptop
  33. Cannot be centralized
  34. Will return power back to the people.
  35. Not a Ponzi scam
  36. Not a Pyramid scam
  37. Never pay tax again
  38. Your gains cannot be taxed
  39. A currency
  40. An amazing new class of asset
  41. An asset
  42. A means to economic freedom
  43. A store of value
  44. The best investment the word has ever seen
  45. A great investment
  46. Efficient
  47. Scalable
  48. Stable
  49. Resilient
  50. Reliable
  51. Low energy
  52. Low risk
  53. Redistribute wealth to everybody
  54. No more have's and have not's
  55. No more US and THEM
  56. No more disadvantaged people
  57. No more RICH and POOR
  58. No more poor people
  59. Uses amazing new technology
  60. Uses ingenious new technology
  61. Satishi Nakamoto invented ...
  62. Segwit will solve all of Bitcoin's woes
  63. Lightning Network will solve all of Bitcoin's woes
  64. Limited by scarcity
  65. Can only go up in value
  66. Price cannot crash
  67. Has intrinsic value
  68. Value will always be worth more than cost to mine
  69. Adoption by investors is increasing exponentially
  70. Adoption by investors is increasing
  71. Adoption by merchants is increasing exponentially
  72. Adoption by merchants is increasing
  73. You are secure if you keep your coins on an exchange
  74. You are secure if you keep your coins in a hardware wallet
  75. You are secure if you keep your coins in an air-gapped Linux PC
  76. Will change the world
  77. "the next phase in human evolution"
  78. "Blockchain is more encompassing than the internet"
  79. Blockchain can solve previously unsolvable problems.
  80. "The only regulation we need is the blockchain"
  81. "Bank the unbanked"
  82. "To abolish financial slavery and the state's toxic monopoly on money."
  83. "To have better tools in the fight against the state violence and taxation."
  84. "To stamp information on a blockchain forever so we can bypass state censorship, copyrights, patents(informational monopolies) etc."
  85. Will destroy / overthrow FIAT
  86. Will destroy / overthrow the world's governments
  87. Will destroy / overthrow the banking system
  88. Will destroy / overthrow the world economies
  89. Will free people from tyranny
  90. Will give people financial freedom
  91. Will bring world peace
  92. Never going below $19K again
  93. Never going below $18K again
  94. Never going below $17K again
  95. Never going below $16K again
  96. Never going below $15K again
  97. Never going below $14K again
  98. Never going below $13K again
  99. Never going below $12K again
  100. Never going below $11K again
  101. Never going below $10K again
  102. Never going below $9K again
  103. Never going below $8K again
  104. Never going below $7K again
  105. Never going below $6K again
  106. Never going below $5K again
  107. Never going below $4K again
  108. Is NOT a Scam
  109. Hashing Power secures the Bitcoin network
  110. Untraceable, private transactions
  111. Guaranteed privacy
  112. Not created out of thin air
  113. Not created out of thin air by unregulated, unbacked entities
  114. Totally NOT a scam
  115. Is not used primarily by crimonals, drug dealers, or money launderers.
  116. 100% secure
  117. 2010 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  118. 2011 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  119. 2012 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  120. 2013 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  121. 2014 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  122. 2015 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  123. 2016 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  124. 2017 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  125. 2018 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  126. 2019 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  127. 2010: MASS ADOPTION any day now"
  128. 2011: MASS ADOPTION aany day now"
  129. 2012: MASS ADOPTION aaany day now"
  130. 2013: MASS ADOPTION aaaany day now"
  131. 2014: MASS ADOPTION aaaaany day now"
  132. 2015: MASS ADOPTION aaaaaany day now"
  133. 2016: MASS ADOPTION aaaaaaany day now"
  134. 2017: MASS ADOPTION aaaaaaaany day now"
  135. 2018: MASS ADOPTION aaaaaaaaany day now"
  136. 2019: MASS ADOPTION aaaaaaaaany day now"
  137. "Financial Freedom, bro."
  138. no single entity, government or individual, can alter or reverse its transactions
  139. insurance against the tyranny of state
  140. Bitcoin has come to destroy all governments and bring about the libertarian utopia of my dreams.
  141. The major issues in Bicoin's network will be fixed. This is still early days, Bitcoin has only been around for 2+ years.
  142. The major issues in Bicoin's network will be fixed. This is still early days, Bitcoin has only been around for 5+ years.
  143. The major issues in Bicoin's network will be fixed. This is still early days, Bitcoin has only been around for 7+ years.
  144. The major issues in Bicoin's network will be fixed. This is still early days, Bitcoin has only been around for 9+ years.
  145. 1,000's of predictions of skyrocketing and/or never falling prices
  146. Escape the petty rivalries of warring powers and nation states by scattering control among the many. The Bitcoin Cash debacle proves that even the most cryptographically secure plans of mice and men often go awry. Ref: https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/9zfhb6/like_theres_only_one_flaw_with_buttcoin_crash/ea8s11m
  147. People will NEVER be able to welch out of bets or deals again. Nov-2018, Ref: https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/9zvpl2/the_guy_who_made_the_1000_bet_that_btc_wouldnt/
  148. "Everything will be better, faster, and cheaper.", Brock Pierce, EOS.io shill video.
  149. "Everything will be more connected.", Brock Pierce, EOS.io shill video.
  150. "Everything will be more trustworthy.", Brock Pierce, EOS.io shill video.
  151. "Everything will be more secure.", Brock Pierce, EOS.io shill video.
  152. "Everything that exists is no-longer going to exist in the way that it does today.", Brock Pierce, EOS.io shill video.
  153. "Everything in this world is about to get better.", Brock Pierce, EOS.io shill video.
  154. You are a slave to the bankers
  155. The bankers print money and then you pay for it
  156. Bitcoin is The Peoples Money
  157. Bitcoin will set you free
  158. Bitcoin will set you free from the slavery of the banks and the government Ref: https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/cd2q94/bitcoin_shall_set_you_free/
  159. ~~Bitcoin is "striking fear into the hearts of bankers, precisely because Bitcoin eliminates the need for banks. ~~, Mark Yusko, billionaire investor and Founder of Morgan Creek Capital, https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
  160. "When transactions are verified on a Blockchain, banks become obsolete.", Mark Yusko, billionaire investor and Founder of Morgan Creek Capital, https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
  161. SnapshillBot quotes from delusional morons:
  162. "A bitcoin miner in every device and in every hand."
  163. "All the indicators are pointing to a huge year and bigger than anything we have seen before."
  164. "Bitcoin is communism and democracy working hand in hand."
  165. "Bitcoin is freedom, and we will soon be free."
  166. "Bitcoin isn't calculated risk, you're right. It's downright and painfully obvious that it will consume global finance."
  167. "Bitcoin most disruptive technology of last 500 years"
  168. "Bitcoin: So easy, your grandma can use it!"
  169. "Creating a 4th Branch of Government - Bitcoin"
  170. "Future generations will cry laughing reading all the negativity and insanity vomited by these permabears."
  171. "Future us will thank us."
  172. "Give Bitcoin two years"
  173. "HODLING is more like being a dutiful guardian of the most powerful economic force this planet has ever seen and getting to have a say about how that force is unleashed."
  174. "Cut out the middleman"
  175. "full control of your own assets"
  176. "reduction in wealth gap"
  177. "no inflation"
  178. "cannot print money out of thin air"
  179. "Why that matters? Because blockchain not only cheaper for them, it'll be cheaper for you and everyone as well."
  180. "If you are in this to get rich in Fiat then no. But if you are in this to protect your wealth once the current monetary system collapse then you are protected and you'll be the new rich."
  181. "Theres the 1% and then theres the 99%. You want to be with the rest thats fine. Being different and brave is far more rewarding. No matter your background or education."
  182. "NO COINERS will believe anything they are fed by fake news and paid media."
  183. "I know that feeling (like people looking at you as in seeing a celebrity and then asking things they don't believe until their impressed)."
  184. "I literally walk round everyday looking at other people wondering why they even bother to live if they don't have Bitcoin in their lives."
  185. "I think bitcoin may very well be the best form of money we’ve ever seen in the history of civilization."
  186. "I think Bitcoin will do for mankind what the sun did for life on earth."
  187. "I think the constant scams and illegal activities only show the viability of bitcoin."
  188. "I think we're sitting on the verge of exponential interest in the currency."
  189. "I'm not using hyperbole when I say Satoshi found the elusive key to World Peace."
  190. "If Jesus ever comes back you know he's gonna be using Bitcoin"
  191. "If this idea was implemented with The Blockchain™, it would be completely flawless! Flawless I tell you!"
  192. "If you're the minimum wage guy type, now is a great time to skip food and go full ramadan in order to buy bitcoin instead."
  193. "In a world slipping more and more into chaos and uncertainty, Bitcoin seems to me like the last solid rock defeating all the attacks."
  194. "In this moment, I am euphoric. Not because of any filthy statist's blessing, but because I am enlightened by own intelligence."
  195. "Is Bitcoin at this point, with all the potential that opens up, the most undervalued asset ever?"
  196. "It won't be long until bitcoin is an everyday household term."
  197. "It's the USD that is volatile. Bitcoin is the real neutral currency."
  198. "Just like the early Internet!"
  199. "Just like the Trojan Horse of old, Bitcoin will reveal its full power and nature"
  200. "Ladies if your man doesnt have some bitcoin then he cant handle anything and has no danger sex appeal. He isnt edgy"
  201. "let me be the first to say if you dont have bitcoin you are a pussy and cant really purchase anything worldwide. You have no global reach"
  202. "My conclusion is that I see this a a very good thing for bitcoin and for users"
  203. "No one would do such a thing; it'd be against their self interests."
  204. "Ooh lala, good job on bashing Bitcoin. How to disrespect a great innovation."
  205. "Realistically I think Bitcoin will replace the dollar in the next 10-15 years."
  206. "Seperation of money and state -> states become obsolete -> world peace."
  207. "Some striking similarities between Bitcoin and God"
  208. "THANK YOU. Better for this child to be strangled in its crib as a true weapon for crypto-anarchists than for it to be wielded by toxic individuals who distort the technology and surrender it to government and corporate powers."
  209. "The Blockchain is more encompassing than the internet and is the next phase in human evolution. To avoid its significance is complete ignorance."
  210. "The bull run should begin any day now."
  211. "The free market doesn't permit fraud and theft."
  212. "The free market will clear away the bad actors."
  213. "The only regulation we need is the blockchain."
  214. "We are not your slaves! We are free bodies who will swallow you and puke you out in disgust. Welcome to liberty land or as that genius called it: Bitcoin."
  215. "We do not need the bankers for Satoshi is our saviour!"
  216. "We have never seen something so perfect"
  217. "We must bring freedom and crypto to the masses, to the common man who does not know how to fight for himself."
  218. "We verified that against the blockchain."
  219. "we will see a Rennaisnce over the next few decades, all thanks to Bitcoin."
  220. "Well, since 2006, there has been a infinite% increase in price, so..."
  221. "What doesn't kill cryptocurrency makes it stronger."
  222. "When Bitcoin awake in normally people (real people) ... you will have this result : No War. No Tax. No QE. No Bank."
  223. "When I see news that the price of bitcoin has tanked (and thus the market, more or less) I actually, for-real, have the gut reaction "oh that’s cool, I’ll be buying cheap this week". I never knew I could be so rational."
  224. "Where is your sense of adventure? Bitcoin is the future. Set aside your fears and leave easier at the doorstep."
  225. "Yes Bitcoin will cause the greatest redistribution of wealth this planet has ever seen. FACT from the future."
  226. "You are the true Bitcoin pioneers and with your help we have imprinted Bitcoin in the Canadian conscience."
  227. "You ever try LSD? Perhaps it would help you break free from the box of state-formed thinking you have limited yourself..."
  228. "Your phone or refrigerator might be on the blockchain one day."
  229. The banks can print money whenever they way, out of thin air, so why can't crypto do the same ???
  230. Central Banks can print money whenever they way, out of thin air, without any consequences or accounting, so why can't crypto do the same ???
  231. It's impossible to hide illegal, unsavory material on the blockchain
  232. It's impossible to hide child pornography on the blockchain
  233. Fungible
  234. All Bitccoins are the same, 100% identical, one Bitcoin cannot be distinguished from any other Bitcoin.
  235. The price of Bitcoin can only go up.
  236. "Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. So are corrections and all else", John McAfee, 7 Dec 2017 @ 5:09 PM,https://mobile.twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/938938539282190337
  237. Scarcity
  238. The price of Bitcoin can only go up because of scarcity / 21 million coin limit. (Bitcoin is open source, anyone can create thir own copy, and there are more than 2,000+ Bitcoin copies / clones out there already).
  239. immune to government regulation
  240. "a world-changing technology"
  241. "a long-term store of value, like gold or silver"
  242. "To Complex to Be Audited."
  243. "Old Auditing rules do not apply to Blockchain."
  244. "Old Auditing rules do not apply to Cryptocurrency."
  245. "Why Bitcoin has Value: SCARCITY.", PlanB, Coin Shill, 22-Mar-2019, https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25
  246. "Bitcoin is the first scarce digital object the world has ever seen, it is scarce like silver & gold, and can be sent over the internet, radio, satellite etc.", PlanB, Coin Shill, 22-Mar-2019, https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25
  247. "Surely this digital scarcity has value.", PlanB, Coin Shill, 22-Mar-2019, https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25
  248. Bitcoin now at $16,600.00. Those of you in the old school who believe this is a bubble simply have not understood the new mathematics of the Blockchain, or you did not cared enough to try. Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. So are corrections and all else", John McAfee, 7 Dec 2017 @ 5:09 PM,https://mobile.twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/938938539282190337
  249. "May 2018 will be the last time we ever see $bitcoin under $10,000", Charlie Shrem, bitcoin advocate and convicted felon, 11:31 AM 3-May-2018, https://twitter.com/CharlieShrem/status/992109375555858433
  250. "Last dip ever.", AngeloBTC, 14 Oct 2018, https://mobile.twitter.com/AngeloBTC/status/1051710824388030464/photo/1
  251. "Bitcoin May Have Just Experienced its Final Shakeout Before a Big Rally", Joseph Young, coin shill, October 15, 2018 22:30 CET, https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-may-have-just-experienced-its-final-shakeout-before-a-big-rally/
  252. Bitcoin would be a buy if the price fell under $5,000., Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, 29-Jun-2018, https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-a-buy-below-5000-says-allianz-chief-economic-adviso
  253. 2013-11-27: ""What is a Citadel?" you might wonder. Well, by the time Bitcoin became worth 1,000 dollar [27-Nov-2013], services began to emerge for the "Bitcoin rich" to protect themselves as well as their wealth. It started with expensive safes, then began to include bodyguards, and today, "earlies" (our term for early adapters), as well as those rich whose wealth survived the "transition" live in isolated gated cities called Citadels, where most work is automated. Most such Citadels are born out of the fortification used to protect places where Bitcoin mining machines are located. The company known as ASICminer to you is known to me as a city where Mr. Friedman rules as a king.", u/Luka_Magnotta, aka time traveler from the future, 31-Aug-2013, https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_timetraveler_from_the_future_here_to_beg/
  254. 2018-02: Bitcoin price to hit $27,000 by February 2018, Trace Mayer, host of the Bitcoin Knowledge Podcast, and self-proclaimed entrepreneur, investor, journalist, monetary scientist and ardent defender, Link #1: https://mobile.twitter.com/TraceMayestatus/917260836070154240/photo/1, Link #2: https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
  255. 2018-06: "Bitcoin will surpass $15,000 in June [2018]." John McAfee, May 25, 2018, https://bitcoinist.com/john-mcafee-says-bitcoin-will-surpass-15000-in-june/
  256. 2018-07: Bitcoin will be $28,000 by mid-2018, Ronnie Moas, Wall Street analyst and founder of Standpoint Research, http://helpfordream.com/2018/12/23/5-bitcoin-price-predictions-gone-wrong/.
  257. 2018-12: Bitcoin to reach a price of between 40,000 and 110,000 US dollars by the end of the 2017 bull run ... sometime before 2019, Masterluc, 26-May-2017, an anonymous "legendary" Bitcoin trader, Link #1: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/, Link #2: https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
  258. 2018-12: "There is no reason why we couldn’t see Bitcoin pushing $50,000 by December [2018]", Thomas Glucksmann, head of APAC business at Gatecoin, Link #1: https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
  259. 2018-12: Listen up you giggling cunts... who wants some?...you? you want some?...huh? Do ya? Here's the deal you fuckin Nerds - Butts are gonna be at 30 grand or more by next Christmas [2018] - If they aren't I will publicly administer an electronic dick sucking to every shill on this site and disappear forever - Until then, no more bans or shadow bans - Do we have a deal? If Butts are over 50 grand me and Lammy get to be mods. Deal? Your ole pal - "Skully" u/10GDeathBoner, 3-Feb-2018 https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/7ut1ut/listen_up_you_giggling_cunts_who_wants_someyou/
  260. 2018-12: 1 bitcoin = 1 Lambo. Remind me on Christmas eve [2018] u/10GDeathBoner, 3-Feb-2018, https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/7ut1ut/listen_up_you_giggling_cunts_who_wants_someyou/dtn2pna
  261. 2018-12: Been in BTC since 2014 and experienced many "deaths" of BTC... this too shall pass... $10k end of the year. [2018] u/Exxe2502, 30-Jun-2018 https://reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/8uur27/_/e1ioi5b/?context=1
  262. 2018-12: "Yale Alumni prediction - 30 Grand by Christmas [2018] - and you my friend... you will be the one eating Mcafee's dick in 2020. :) -:", u/SirNakamoto, 15-Jun-2018, https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/8r0tyh/fdic_agrees_to_cover_bitcoin_losses_in_event_of/e0nzxq7
  263. 2018-12: "Impossible For Bitcoin Not to Hit $10,000 by This Year (2018)", Mike Novogratz, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partner, ex-hedge fund manager of the Fortress Investment Group and a longstanding advocate of cryptocurrency, 22-Sep-2018, https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/09/22/billionaire-novogratz-impossible-for-bitcoin-not-to-hit-10000-by-this-yea
  264. 2018-12: "[Bitcoin] between $13,800 and $14,800 [by end of 2018]", Fundstrat's Tom Lee, 13-Dec-2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/13/wall-streets-bitcoin-bull-tom-lee-we-are-tired-of-people-asking-us-about-target-prices.html
  265. 2018-12: "Bitcoin is going to be $15k-$20k by the end of the year (2018)", Didi Taihuttu, 1-Nov-2018, https://www.wsj.com/video/series/moving-upstream/the-bitcoin-gamble/85E3A4A7-C777-4827-9A3F-B387F2AB7654
  266. 2018-12: 2018 bitcoin price prediction reduced to $15,000 [was $25,000], Fundstrat's Tom Lee, 16-Nov-2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/16/wall-streets-crypto-bull-tom-lee-slashes-year-end-forecast-by-10000.html
  267. 2018-12: "I want to be clear, bitcoin is going to $25,000 by year end (2018)", Fundstrat's Tom Lee, 5-Jul-2018, https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/07/05/tom-lee-i-want-to-be-clear-bitcoin-is-going-to-25000-by-year-end.html
  268. 2018-12: "Bitcoin could be at $40,000 by the end of 2018, it really easily could", Mike Novogratz, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partner, ex-hedge fund manager of the Fortress Investment Group and a longstanding advocate of cryptocurrency, 21-Sep-2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lC1anDg2KU
  269. 2018-12: "Bitcoin will be priced around $50,000 by the end of the year (2018)", Bitcoin bull Arthur Hayes, co-founder and CEO of BitMEX, 29-Jun-2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/29/bitcoin-will-reach-50000-in-2018-says-founder-of-bitcoin-exchange.html
  270. 2018-12: "Bitcoin could definitely see $50,000 in 2018", Jeet Singh, cryptocurrency portfolio manager, speaking in January 2018 at the World Economic Forum in Davos, https://www.dcforecasts.com/new-prediction-says-bitcoin-hit-50000-2018/
  271. 2018-12: "Bitcoin will hit $100,000 this year (2018)", Kay Van-Petersen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, 17-Jan-2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/16/bitcoin-headed-to-100000-in-2018-analyst-who-forecast-2017-price-move.html
  272. 2018-12: "Bitcoin price to surpass the $100,000 mark by the end of 2018", Tone Vays, 21-Sep-2017, https://www.ccn.com/prominent-bitcoin-trader-price-is-heading-towards-100000-in-2018/
  273. 2018-12: "Bitcoin’s Price Will Surpass the $100,000 Mark by the End of 2018", Anonymous ("author" obviously too embarrassed to put his name to such bullshit "articles"), Oct-2018, https://investingpr.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-for-2018/
  274. 2018-12: "Our [2018] year-end bitcoin target is $7700.", James Stefurak, Founder at Monarch Research. See article: "Experts Forecast Bitcoin will rise by 2019", REF: https://hackernoon.com/experts-forecast-bitcoin-will-rise-by-2019-f4af8807036b?gi=dfea3c30d6d8
  275. 2018-12: "... we’ll see the price rally reaching its all-time of high of around $20K before the end of 2018", Khaled Khorshid, Co-Founder at Treon ICO. See article: "Experts Forecast Bitcoin will rise by 2019", REF: https://hackernoon.com/experts-forecast-bitcoin-will-rise-by-2019-f4af8807036b?gi=dfea3c30d6d8
  276. 2018-12: Bitcoin will end 2018 at the price point of $50,000, Ran Neuner, host of CNBC’s show Cryptotrader and the 28th most influential Blockchain insider according to Richtopia,https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
  277. Plus a whole host of wrong 2019 predictions (could not be included here because of post character limit issues), so please see my earlier post from 4 days ago: Ummm, remember those "Expert" Bitcoin Price Predictions for 2019 ..... ohhhhh dear ....., https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/eiqhq3/ummm_remember_those_expert_bitcoin_price/
.
But it's NOT all bad news, some claims and promises are yet to be determined:
  1. Never going below $3K again
  2. Never going below $2K again
  3. Never going below $1K again
  4. Any others ? Please let me know.
submitted by Crypto_To_The_Core to Buttcoin [link] [comments]

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'Fake Bitcoin' - How this Woman Scammed the World, then ...

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